The technological future is more predictable than you think.
Almost no one measures which one that is.
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The puzzle is growing faster than you can lay down the pieces.
In the early 1900s, there were a few hundred fields of technology. Today there are over 265,000. By the early 2030s, projections put it past 300,000.
The volume of technology a senior R&D leader is expected to track has scaled exponentially. The number of hours in their week has not. The result is a structural mismatch between what they are supposed to see and what they actually can.
For 25 years, MIT measured how fast technologies actually improve.
There are two dominant ways organizations try to see what's coming next. Both have a structural ceiling.
Experts
Experts are valuable. You should keep using them. But no expert can read every relevant patent, paper, and filing across the global landscape. And most experts are deepest in the field they already know best. That depth is exactly what creates blind spots when disruption arrives from an adjacent industry.
Trend and monitoring tools
These count things. Investment dollars, papers, patents, news mentions. That is a measure of popularity, not progress. And history is full of very popular, very dumb ideas. Counting what people are paying attention to tells you nothing about which technology is actually getting better fastest.
To predict disruption, you have to measure something different. You have to measure improvement itself.
30 years of MIT research, 28 domains, one consistent finding.
30 years of MIT research, 28 domains, one consistent finding.
There are two dominant ways organizations try to see what's coming next. Both have a structural ceiling.
Eliminate strategic blind spots.
Instantly map the IP landscape for all emerging technologies.
Our technology improvement rate will show where to bet years before it's obvious.
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MIT Section
MIT found that every technology improves exponentially at a measurable rate, like compound interest.
Every technology improves at its own rate. A technology improvement rate (TIR) represents how quickly a technology improves from a cost and performance perspective.
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GetFocus accelerates our learning curve, helping us pinpoint where to direct our efforts more effectively. It's an invaluable tool for validating the insights of our in-house experts, ensuring that we can objectively assess new technologies"
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